Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Dana Bryazka , Marissa B Reitsma , Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate , Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied , Atef Abdelkader , Arash Abdollahi , Meriem Abdoun , Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader , Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga , E.S. Abhilash , Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun , Olumide Abiodun , Richard Gyan Aboagye , Lucas Guimarães Abreu , Dariush Abtahi , Hasan Abualruz , Bilyaminu Abubakar , Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh , Salahdein Aburuz , Ahmed Abu-Zaid , Mesafint Molla Adane , Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi , Oyelola A Adegboye , Victor Adekanmbi , Habeeb Omoponle Adewuyi , Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani , Leticia Akua Adzigbli , Siamak Afaghi , Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi , Muhammad Sohail Afzal , Saira Afzal , Antonella Agodi , Williams Agyemang-Duah , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah , Austin J Ahlstrom , Aqeel Ahmad , Danish Ahmad , Muayyad M Ahmad , Sajjad Ahmad , Shahzaib Ahmad , Ali Ahmadi , Anisuddin Ahmed , Ayman Ahmed , Haroon Ahmed , Muktar Beshir Ahmed , Safoora Ahmed , Marjan Ajami , Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif , Ema Akter , Salah Al Awaidy , Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan , Yazan Al-Ajlouni , Ziyad Al-Aly , Khurshid Alam , Zufishan Alam , Wafa A Aldhaleei , Abdelazeem M Algammal , Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi , Khalid F Alhabib , Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa , Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi , Abid Ali , Mohammed Usman Ali , Rafat Ali , Syed Shujait Ali , Waad Ali , Sheikh Mohammad Alif , Syed Mohamed Aljunid , François Alla , Peter Allebeck , Wael Almahmeed , Sabah Al-Marwani , Sadeq Al-Maweri , Mahmoud A Alomari , Jaber S Alqahtani , Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi , Rajaa M Mohammad Al-Raddadi , Sahel Majed Alrousan , Saqr Alsakarneh , Najim Z Alshahrani , Zaid Altaany , Awais Altaf , Nelson Alvis-Guzman , Mohammad Al-Wardat , Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi , Hany Aly , Safwat Aly , Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya , Karem H Alzoubi , Walid Adnan Al-Zyoud , Reza Amani , Tarek Tawfik Amin , Sohrab Amiri , Hubert Amu , Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul , Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa , Tanu Anand , Deanna Anderlini , David B Anderson , Jason A Anderson , Catalina Liliana Andrei , Tudorel Andrei , Mohammed Tahir Ansari , Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa , Saeid Anvari , Sumadi Lukman Anwar , Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor , Jalal Arabloo , Elshaimaa A Arafa , Aleksandr Y Aravkin , Demelash Areda , Brhane Berhe Aregawi , Olatunde Aremu , Anton A Artamonov , Akeza Awealom Asgedom , Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi , Mubarek Yesse Ashemo , Tahira Ashraf , Thomas Astell-Burt , Seyyed Shamsadin Athari , Prince Atorkey , Alok Atreya , Avinash Aujayeb , Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe , Getinet Ayano , Setognal Birara Aychiluhm , Sina Azadnajafabad , Ahmed Y Azzam , Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu , Pegah Bahrami Taghanaki , Saeed Bahramian , Ruhai Bai , Shankar M Bakkannavar , Senthilkumar Balakrishnan , Kiran Bam , Maciej Banach , Soham Bandyopadhyay , Mehmet Firat Baran , Martina Barchitta , Mainak Bardhan , Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo , Amadou Barrow , Hameed Akande Bashiru , Afisu Basiru , Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan , Sanjay Basu , Saurav Basu , Kavita Batra , Mohsen Bayati , Amir Hossein Behnoush , Shelly L Bell , Luis Belo , Alice A Beneke , Derrick A Bennett , Isabela M Bensenor , Azizullah Beran , Amiel Nazer C Bermudez , Habtamu B Beyene , Devidas S Bhagat , Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula , Neeraj Bhala , Nikha Bhardwaj , Pankaj Bhardwaj , Sonu Bhaskar , Ajay Nagesh Bhat , Natalia V Bhattacharjee , Priyadarshini Bhattacharjee , Jasvinder Singh Bhatti , Cem Bilgin , Atanu Biswas , Bijit Biswas , Micheal Kofi Boachie , Eyob Ketema Bogale , Berrak Bora Basara , Hamed Borhany , Samuel Adolf Bosoka , Souad Bouaoud , Edward J Boyko , Hermann Brenner , Andre R Brunoni , Raffaele Bugiardini , Norma B Bulamu , Yasser Bustanji , Zahid A Butt , Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos , Daniela Calina , Chao Cao , Fan Cao , Angelo Capodici , Rosario Cárdenas , Giulia Carreras , Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia , Maria Sofia Cattaruzza , Arthur Caye , Luca Cegolon , Edina Cenko , Sonia Cerrai , Sandip Chakraborty , Rama Mohan Chandika , Eeshwar K Chandrasekar , Vijay Kumar Chattu , Anis Ahmad Chaudhary , Akhilanand Chaurasia , An-Tian Chen , Guangjin Chen , Haowei Chen , Meng Xuan Chen , Simiao Chen , Kent Jason Go Cheng , Gerald Chi , Fatemeh Chichagi , Ritesh Chimoriya , Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres , Abdulaal Chitheer , Bryan Chong , Chean Lin Chong , Yuen Yu Chong , Hitesh Chopra , Sonali Gajanan Choudhari , Dinh-Toi Chu , Isaac Sunday Chukwu , Sheng-Chia Chung , Muhammad Chutiyami , Joao Conde , Alexandru Corlateanu , Michael H Criqui , Natália Cruz-Martins , Alanna Gomes da Silva , Omid Dadras , Siyu Dai , Xiaochen Dai , Giovanni Damiani , Lalit Dandona , Rakhi Dandona , Samuel D Darcho , Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani , Saswati Das , Nihar Ranjan Dash , Kairat Davletov , Aklilu Tamire Debele , Shayom Debopadhaya , Daniel Demant , Hardik Dineshbhai Desai , Devananda Devegowda , Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan , Arkadeep Dhali , Amol S Dhane , Vishal R Dhulipala , Thanh Chi Do , Milad Dodangeh , Phidelia Theresa Doegah , Sushil Dohare , Deepa Dongarwar , Mario D'Oria , Ojas Prakashbhai Doshi , Rajkumar Prakashbhai Doshi , Robert Kokou Dowou , Ashel Chelsea Dsouza , Haneil Larson Dsouza , Viola Savy Dsouza , Bruce B Duncan , Andre Rodrigues Duraes , Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic , Abdel Rahman E'mar , Alireza Ebrahimi , Negar Ebrahimi , Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan , David Edvardsson , Kristina Edvardsson , Ferry Efendi , Diyan Ermawan Effendi , Foolad Eghbali , Michael Ekholuenetale , Rabie Adel El Arab , Ibrahim Farahat El Bayoumy , Iman El Sayed , Iffat Elbarazi , Muhammed Elhadi , Waseem El-Huneidi , Mohamed A Elmonem , Gihan ELNahas , Ibrahim Elsohaby , Chadi Eltaha , Mohd Elmagzoub Eltahir , Mehdi Emamverdi , Theophilus I Emeto , Daniel Asfaw Erku , Farshid Etaee , Elochukwu Fortune Ezenwankwo , Natalia Fabin , Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe , Omotayo Francis Fagbule , Shahriar Faghani , Ayesha Fahim , Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev , Luca Falzone , Umar Farooque , Ali Fatehizadeh , Zareen Fatima , Nelsensius Klau Fauk , Timur Fazylov , Alireza Feizkhah , Ginenus Fekadu , Xiaoqi Feng , Pietro Ferrara , Nuno Ferreira , Bikila Regassa Feyisa , Filippos T Filippidis , Florian Fischer , Luisa S Flor , Nataliya A Foigt , Celia Fortuna Rodrigues , Matteo Foschi , Sridevi G , Peter Andras Gaal , Muktar A Gadanya , Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane , Márió Gajdács , Silvano Gallus , Aravind P Gandhi , Balasankar Ganesan , Prem Gautam , Rupesh K Gautam , Miglas Welay Gebregergis , Mesfin Gebrehiwot , Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel , Lemma Getacher , Fataneh Ghadirian , Ramy Mohamed Ghazy , Ali Gholamrezanezhad , Mahsa Ghorbani , Sherief Ghozy , Artyom Urievich Gil , Gabriela Fernanda Gil , Elena V Gnedovskaya , Sonu Goel , Salime Goharinezhad , Mohamad Goldust , Mahaveer Golechha , Pouya Goleij , Davide Golinelli , Giuseppe Gorini , Mahdi Gouravani , Ayman Grada , Michal Grivna , Shekhar Grover , Shi-Yang Guan , Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari , Avirup Guha , Stefano Guicciardi , Snigdha Gulati , Damitha Asanga Gunawardane , Sasidhar Gunturu , Zhifeng Guo , Anish Kumar Gupta , Bhawna Gupta , Ishita Gupta , Mohak Gupta , Rajeev Gupta , Sapna Gupta , Veer Bala Gupta , Vipin Gupta , Vivek Kumar Gupta , Mostafa Hadei , Najah R Hadi , Ali Hajj Ali , Esam S Halboub , Nadia M Hamdy , Samer Hamidi , Ahmad Hammoud , Graeme J Hankey , Arief Hargono , Josep Maria Haro , Ahmed I Hasaballah , Faizul Hasan , Md Kamrul Hasan , Md Saquib Hasnain , Amr Hassan , Ikrama Ibrahim Hassan , Shoaib Hassan , Simon I Hay , Behzad Heibati , Mohammad Heidari , Mehdi Hemmati , Delia Hendrie , Claudiu Herteliu , Demisu Zenbaba Heyi , Kamal Hezam , Yuta Hiraike , Nguyen Quoc Hoan , Ramesh Holla , Nobuyuki Horita , Md Mahbub Hossain , Sahadat Hossain , Hassan Hosseinzadeh , Mihaela Hostiuc , Sorin Hostiuc , Junjie Huang , Ayesha Humayun , Javid Hussain , Bing-Fang Hwang , Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye , Nayu Ikeda , Adalia Ikiroma , Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi , Irena M Ilic , Milena D Ilic , Mustapha Immurana , Leeberk Raja Inbaraj , Muhammad Iqhrammullah , Lalu Muhammad Irham , Md Rabiul Islam , Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam , Farhad Islami , Gaetano Isola , Ramaiah Itumalla , Masao Iwagami , Mahalaxmi Iyer , Vinothini J , Jalil Jaafari , Louis Jacob , Abdollah Jafarzadeh , Khushleen Jaggi , Nader Jahanmehr , Akhil Jain , Nityanand Jain , Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun , Sanobar Jaka , Mihajlo Jakovljevic , Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh , Elham Jamshidi , Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia , Talha Jawaid , Sathish Kumar Jayapal , Shubha Jayaram , Ruwan Duminda Jayasinghe , Rime Jebai , Sun Ha Jee , Bijay Mukesh Jeswani , Heng Jiang , Mohammad Jokar , Jost B Jonas , Tamas Joo , Nitin Joseph , Charity Ehimwenma Joshua , Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak , Mikk Jürisson , Vaishali K , Ali Kabir , Zubair Kabir , Vidya Kadashetti , Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah , Mona Kanaan , Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi , Surya Kant , Rami S Kantar , Paschalis Karakasis , Ibraheem M Karaye , Salah Eddin Karimi , Yeganeh Karimi , Arman Karimi Behnagh , Samad Karkhah , Prabin Karki , Faizan Zaffar Kashoo , Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi , Harkiran Kaur , Navjot Kaur , Sina Kazemian , Tahseen Haider Kazmi , Peter Njenga Keiyoro , Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot , Yousef Saleh Khader , Himanshu Khajuria , Amirmohammad Khalaji , Alireza Khalilian , Ajmal Khan , Maseer Khan , Mohammad Jobair Khan , Moien AB Khan , Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi , Khaled Khatab , Haitham Khatatbeh , Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh , Amir M Khater , Khalid A Kheirallah , Manoj Khokhar , Moein Khormali , Atulya Aman Khosla , Sepehr Khosravi , Kwanghyun Kim , Min Seo Kim , Yun Jin Kim , Adnan Kisa , Ali-Asghar Kolahi , Somayeh Komaki , Shivakumar KM Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli , Miikka Korja , Oleksii Korzh , Soewarta Kosen , Karel Kostev , Kewal Krishan , Barthelemy Kuate Defo , Mohammed Kuddus , Omar Kujan , Mukhtar Kulimbet , Ashish Kumar , G Anil Kumar , Nithin Kumar , Rakesh Kumar , Vijay Kumar , Amartya Kundu , Satyajit Kundu , Setor K Kunutsor , Om P Kurmi , Dian Kusuma , Frank Kyei-Arthur , Ville Kytö , Carlo La Vecchia , Chandrakant Lahariya , Daphne Teck Ching Lai , Hanpeng Lai , Ratilal Lalloo , Tea Lallukka , Bagher Larijani , Savita Lasrado , Jerrald Lau , Paolo Lauriola , Thao Thi Thu Le , Janet L Leasher , Munjae Lee , Seung Won Lee , Wei-Chen Lee , Yo Han Lee , Elvynna Leong , Temesgen Leka Lerango , An Li , Wei Li , Virendra S Ligade , Stephen S Lim , Jialing Lin , Paulina A Lindstedt , Gang Liu , Erand Llanaj , José Francisco López-Gil , Paulo A Lotufo , Giancarlo Lucchetti , Alessandra Lugo , Jay B Lusk , Hawraz Ibrahim M Amin , Zheng Feei Ma , Monika MacHoy , Farzan Madadizadeh , Elham Mahmoudi , Abdelrahman M Makram , Omar M Makram , Kashish Malhotra , Ahmad Azam Malik , Deborah Carvalho Malta , Abdullah A Mamun , Pejman Mansouri , Mohammad Ali Mansournia , Emmanuel Manu , Hamid Reza Marateb , Jose Martinez-Raga , Miquel Martorell , Roy Rillera Marzo , Yasith Mathangasinghe , Elezebeth Mathews , Medha Mathur , Navgeet Mathur , Rita Mattiello , Andrea Maugeri , Martin McKee , Enkeleint A Mechili , Ravi Mehrotra , Tesfahun Mekene Meto , Birye Dessalegn Mekonnen , Hadush Negash Meles , Walter Mendoza , Ritesh G Menezes , Sultan Ayoub Meo , Atte Meretoja , Tuomo J Meretoja , Tomislav Mestrovic , Caine C A Meyers , Irmina Maria Michalek , Ted R Miller , Giuseppe Minervini , Mojgan Mirghafourvand , Erkin M Mirrakhimov , Vinaytosh Mishra , Sanjeev Misra , Prasanna Mithra , Ahmed Ismail Mohamed , Jama Mohamed , Mouhand F H Mohamed , Nouh Saad Mohamed , Ameen Mosa Mohammad , Sakineh Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi , Ibrahim Mohammadzadeh , Hussen Mohammed , Shafiu Mohammed , Syam Mohan , Ali H Mokdad , Hossein Molavi Vardanjani , Sabrina Molinaro , Shaher Momani , Himel Mondal , Ute Mons , AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf , Maryam Moradi , Rafael Silveira Moreira , Negar Morovatdar , Shane Douglas Morrison , Vincent Mougin , George Duke Mukoro , Francesk Mulita , Erin C Mullany , Malaisamy Muniyandi , Yanjinlkham Munkhsaikhan , Efrén Murillo-Zamora , Christopher J L Murray , Woojae Myung , Pirouz Naghavi , Ganesh R Naik , Soroush Najdaghi , Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen , Luigi Naldi , Gopal Nambi , Vinay Nangia , Jobert Richie Nansseu , Shumaila Nargus , Gustavo G Nascimento , Abdulqadir J Nashwan , Zuhair S Natto , Javaid Nauman , Muhammad Naveed , Nawsherwan , Biswa Prakash Nayak , Vinod C Nayak , Athare Nazri-Panjaki , Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba , Ruxandra Irina Negoi , Reza Nejad Shahrokh Abadi , Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi , Chakib Nejjari , Subas Neupane , Marie Ng , Josephine W Ngunjiri , Duc Hoang Nguyen , Hau Thi Hien Nguyen , Hien Quang Nguyen , Phat Tuan Nguyen , Phuong The Nguyen , Van Thanh Nguyen , Yeshambel T Nigatu , Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis , Ali Nikoobar , Nasrin Nikravangolsefid , Vikram Niranjan , Chukwudi A Nnaji , Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi , Efaq Ali Noman , Shuhei Nomura , Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor , Mamoona Noreen , Majid Nozari , Fred Nugen , Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam , Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam , Bogdan Oancea , Kehinde O Obamiro , Ismail A Odetokun , Daniel Bogale Odo Odo , Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya , Michael Safo Oduro , James Odhiambo Oguta , In-Hwan Oh , Hassan Okati-Aliabad , Sylvester Reuben Okeke , Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle , Osaretin Christabel Okonji , Andrew T Olagunju , Omotola O Olasupo , Matthew Idowu Olatubi , Glaucia Maria Moraes Oliveira , Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba , Goran Latif Omer , Sok King Ong , Abdulahi Opejin Opejin , Michal Ordak , Verner N Orish , Esteban Ortiz-Prado , Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu , Stanislav S Otstavnov , Amel Ouyahia , Mahesh Padukudru P A , Alicia Padron-Monedero , Jagadish Rao Padubidri , Anton Pak , Raul Felipe Palma-Alvarez , Hai-Feng Pan , Demosthenes Panagiotakos , Songhomitra Panda-Jonas , Anamika Pandey , Leonidas D Panos , Ioannis Pantazopoulos , Anca Pantea Stoian , Paraskevi Papadopoulou , Shahina Pardhan , Pragyan Paramita Parija , Romil R Parikh , Eun-Kee Park , Seoyeon Park , Nicholas Parsons , Roberto Passera , Jay Patel , Sangram Kishor Patel , Shankargouda Patil , Hridoy Patwary , Shrikant Pawar , Prince Peprah , Gavin Pereira , Arokiasamy Perianayagam , Richard G Pestell , Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha , Tom Pham , Anil K Philip , Michael R Phillips , Dimitri Poddighe , Roman V Polibin , Ramesh Poluru , Fabio Porru , Akram Pourshams , Jalandhar Pradhan , Pranil Man Singh Pradhan , Manya Prasad , Akila Prashant , Elton Junio Sady Prates , Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi , Bharathi M Purohit , Jagadeesh Puvvula , Ibrahim Qattea , Venkatraman Radhakrishnan , Catalina Raggi , Pankaja Raghav , Fakher Rahim , Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar , Md Mosfequr Rahman , Mosiur Rahman , Muhammad Aziz Rahman , Shayan Rahmani , Mohammad Rahmanian , Nazanin Rahmanian , Vinoth Rajendran , Pushp Lata Rajpoot , Prashant Rajput , Pradhum Ram , Mahmoud Mohammed Ramadan , Majed Ramadan , Kritika Rana , Rishabh Kumar Rana , Chhabi Lal Ranabhat , Sowmya J Rao , Sina Rashedi , Ahmed Mustafa Rashid , Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi , Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani , Devarajan Rathish , Santosh Kumar Rauniyar , Ilari Rautalin , Nakul Ravikumar , Salman Rawaf , Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy , Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan , Negar Rezaei , Mohsen Rezaeian , Abanoub Riad , Mónica Rodrigues , Thales Philipe R Rodrigues da Silva , Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez , Leonardo Roever , Kevin T Root , Gholamreza Roshandel , Allen Guy Ross , Himanshu Sekhar Rout , Bedanta Roy , Nitai Roy , Simanta Roy , Guilherme De Andrade Ruela , Chandan S N , Cameron John Sabet , Siamak Sabour , Kabir P Sadarangani , Basema Ahmad Saddik , Masoumeh Sadeghi , Mohammad Reza Saeb , Umar Saeed , Pooya Saeedi , Sher Zaman Safi , Dominic Sagoe , Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari , Amirhossein Sahebkar , Soumya Swaroop Sahoo , Md Refat Uz Zaman Sajib , Mirza Rizwan Sajid , Luciane B Salaroli , Mohamed A Saleh , Mohammed Z Y Salem , Dauda Salihu , Yoseph Leonardo Samodra , Abdallah M Samy , Juan Sanabria , Milena M Santric-Milicevic , Bruno Piassi Sao Jose , Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib , Made Ary Sarasmita , Aswini Saravanan , Babak Saravi , Yaser Sarikhani , Tanmay Sarkar , Gargi Sachin Sarode , Sachin C Sarode , Benn Sartorius , Brijesh Sathian , Anudeep Sathyanarayan , Maheswar Satpathy , Monika Sawhney , Mete Saylan , Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt , Michael P Schaub , Markus P Schlaich , Maria Inês Schmidt , Art Schuermans , Austin E Schumacher , Siddharthan Selvaraj , Mohammad H Semreen , Subramanian Senthilkumaran , Sadaf G Sepanlou , Yashendra Sethi , Seyed Arsalan Seyedi , Allen Seylani , Mahan Shafie , Arman Shafiee , Ataollah Shahbandi , Samiah Shahid , Hamid R Shahsavari , Moyad Jamal Shahwan , Ahmed Shaikh , Masood Ali Shaikh , Ali S Shalash , Muhammad Aaqib Shamim , Anas Shamsi , Alfiya Shamsutdinova , Mohd Shanawaz , Abhishek Shankar , Mohammed Shannawaz , Medha Sharath , Amin Sharifan , Manoj Sharma , Ujjawal Sharma , Vishal Sharma , Aziz Sheikh , Ali Sheikhy , Mahabalesh Shetty , Pavanchand H Shetty , Premalatha K Shetty , Desalegn Shiferaw , Tariku Shimels , Rahman Shiri , Aminu Shittu , Ivy Shiue , Velizar Shivarov , Seyed Afshin Shorofi , Sunil Shrestha , Emmanuel Edwar Siddig , Joao Pedro Silva , Abhinav Singh , Baljinder Singh , Harmanjit Singh , Jasvinder A Singh , Paramdeep Singh , Puneetpal Singh , Surjit Singh , Virendra Singh , Freddy Sitas , Amanda E Smith , Matiwos Soboka , Ranjan Solanki , Marco Solmi , Soroush Soraneh , Joan B Soriano , Ireneous N Soyiri , Michael Spartalis , Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy , Panagiotis Stachteas , Dan J Stein , Paschalis Steiropoulos , Aleksandar Stevanović , Kurt Straif , Muhammad Suleman , Gerhard Sulo , Zhong Sun , Vinay Suresh , Chandan Kumar Swain , Lukasz Szarpak , Sree Sudha T Y , Payam Tabaee Damavandi , Ozra Tabatabaei Malazy , Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh , Celine Tabche , Jyothi Tadakamadla , Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla , Jabeen Taiba , Iman M Talaat , Ashis Talukder , Mircea Tampa , Jacques Lukenze JL Tamuzi , Ker-Kan Tan , Minale Tareke , Ingan Ukur Tarigan , Mojtaba Teimoori , Mohamad-Hani Temsah , Reem Mohamad Hani Temsah , Masayuki Teramoto , Dufera Rikitu Terefa , Pugazhenthan Thangaraju , Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan , Rekha Thapar , Rasiah Thayakaran , Nikhil Kenny Thomas , Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu , Krishna Tiwari , Roman Topor-Madry , Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone , Khaled Trabelsi , An Thien Tran , Ngoc Ha Tran , Thang Huu Tran , Nguyen Tran Minh Duc , Indang Trihandini , Jaya Prasad Tripathy , Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen , Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini , Abdul Rohim Tualeka , Aniefiok John Udoakang , Arit Udoh , Atta Ullah , Saeed Ullah , Muhammad Umair , Brigid Unim , Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan , Jibrin Sammani Usman , Sanaz Vahdati , Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan , Jef Van Den Eynde , Constantine Vardavas , Tommi Juhani Vasankari , Siavash Vaziri , Balachandar Vellingiri , Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian , Madhur Verma , Paul J Villeneuve , Manish Vinayak , Francesco S Violante , Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov , Simona Ruxandra Volovat , Abdul Wadood , Yasir Waheed , Mandaras Tariku Walde , Shu Wang , Yanzhong Wang , Muhammad Waqas , Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe , Peter Willeit , Marcin W Wojewodzic , Asrat Arja Wolde , Tewodros Eshete Wonde , Hong Xiao , Suowen Xu , Mukesh Kumar Yadav , Kazumasa Yamagishi , Danting Yang , Lin Yang , Yuichiro Yano , Amir Yarahmadi , Renjulal Yesodharan , Saber Yezli , Xinglin Yi , Arzu Yiğit , Dehui Yin , Dong Keon Yon , Naohiro Yonemoto , Seok-Jun Yoon , Chuanhua Yu , Chun-Wei Yuan , Fathiah Zakham , Mohammed G M Zeariya , Haijun Zhang , Jianrong Zhang , Liqun Zhang , Claire Chenwen Zhong , Shang Cheng Zhou , Bin Zhu , Magdalena Zieliñska , Ghazal Zoghi , Sa'ed H Zyoud , Stein Emil Vollset , Emmanuela Gakidou
October 2024
Cite DOI

Abstract

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Type
Journal article
Publication
The Lancet Public Health

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